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Extremes Source: IPCC 4th Assessment (2007) Extremes Shift More Than Avg’s. 1901-1950 1951-1978 1979-2003 Frequency Temperature Source: IPCC 4th Assessment (2007) Rare Extremes Cause Most of the Damages & Insured Losses The European heat wave of Summer 2003 Source: Schar et al, Nature, v. 427, 2004. Small-scale, Indirect Events and Consequences Often Overlooked Events Greater combined impacts than CATs in an average year • • • • • • • • • • • Drought Hail Heat waves Ice Storms Lightning Sea-level rise Thunderstorms Tornados Torrential rains Wildfire Winterstorms Consequences • Blackouts • Coastal erosion • Crop/fishery damages • Equipment breakdown • Eroded air quality • Eroded water quality • Flooding • Health impacts • Mudslides • Property loss • Sinkholes/Subsidence • Weather-related vehicle accidents Temperature-Related Insurance Loss Experience Lightning-related claims accelerate with temperature Each symbol represents a lightning storm event Source: Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Co.

Glaciers & frozen ground are receding 200,000 km2 Accelerating since early 1990s Source: IPCC 4th Assessment (2007) Area of seasonally frozen ground in NH has decreased by 7% from 1901 to 2002 Consumer Reports on Glaciers Fingerprints ... 3 Lake Tahoes] 720 billion tons Subsequent 8x increse in outflow glacier speed Correlation of Disease Clusters with the 1997-1998 El Nino Weather Extremes El Nino expected to become more frequent under climate change Source: Epstein, Harvard Medical School, Science World Health Organization estimates climate change already causing 150,000 premature deaths/yr in 2000 Overwhelming Correlations Synthesis of Scientific Literature on Observed Changes 1970-2004 • 577 studies reviewed • 765 observed physical changes (94% consistent with warming) • 28,671 observed biological changes (90% consistent with warming) Source: IPCC 4th Assessment (2007) Is there a scientific consensus that global warming is real?

Open Questions • Not the existence of human-induced climate change, or lack thereof, but rather: – How much? – How fast? – How gradual/abrupt? – Feedbacks • Positive • Negative – Geography of impacts – Gaps in models (especially cryosphere) – Society’s ability to adapt – Attribution of Impacts Climate Contrarians: An Endangered Species Source: Krispy Creme Contrarians • Cherry-picking – point to the one glacier that is holding its own rather than the 99 that are receding – comparing isolated Medieval Warming in one area to current warming in virtually all regions of world • Red Herrings – The earth has been warm before • Pre-civilization • Sea-level was 80 feet higher • Oh, and by the way, for different reasons • • • • Lack of data or models equated with disproof Personal attacks Egoism Self-censorship What is the prognosis for the future?

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A Scheme For Global Warming Mitigation Via Controlled Enhancement Of The Reflectivity Of Maritime Clouds by Dr John Latham


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